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AI’s Impact on Music Creator Revenue by 2028: What the 24% Forecast Really Means
CISAC’s global study forecasts that generative AI could put 24% of music creators’ revenues at risk in 2028 under its modeled assumptions. That is not a guaranteed 24% pay cut. Here’s what the forecast means, what it does...
AI’s Impact on Music Creator Revenue by 2028: What the 24% Forecast Really Means
The widely cited 2028 number is serious—but it is often repeated without the part that matters most: it is a modeled risk scenario, not a guaranteed 24% pay cut for every musician or creator.
Direct answer: a global study commissioned by CISAC and conducted by PMP Strategy estimated that, under the conditions modeled in the study, generative AI could put 24% of music creators’ revenues at risk in 2028 compared with a no-generative-AI scenario. The study equated that to roughly €4 billion of music creator revenue in 2028. That does not mean every creator will lose 24%, nor does it measure a loss that has already happened.
Three numbers worth understanding—and one important condition
CISAC commissioned the global economic study from PMP Strategy. Its music forecast compares a future with generative AI against a modeled world without it. The study’s headline figures include:
Music creators’ revenue described as being at risk in 2028 under the study’s current-conditions scenario.
Estimated annual music creator revenue loss in 2028 in that scenario.
Estimated annual market value of generative-AI music outputs in 2028.
The study also projected generative-AI music services themselves could reach about €4 billion in annual revenue by 2028. Its key condition is equally important: CISAC frames the creator-loss scenario around an unchanged regulatory and remuneration environment.
Read the CISAC/PMP Strategy study overview or the CISAC study announcement.
The old 23% claim was wrong
The earlier version of this Jack Righteous article said studies predicted a 23% impact on music creator revenue. The underlying global CISAC/PMP Strategy figure is 24%. The old page also linked to an unrelated 2024 AI-news podcast and treated a loose collection of AI tools as evidence for the revenue forecast.
This rebuild corrects the number, identifies the source, removes the irrelevant source and separates forecast from measured outcome.
Four things the 24% forecast does not prove
It does not predict your personal income
Your exposure depends on where your money comes from, what you create, your audience, your rights, your market and how AI changes those specific channels.
It does not say all human music gets replaced
The study models substitution pressure across parts of the market. It is not a claim that listeners stop valuing human performance, identity or relationships.
Using AI does not automatically protect revenue
Faster output can lower production cost, but more tracks do not automatically create demand, ownership, audience or payment.
Refusing AI does not automatically protect revenue
Your economic position also depends on discovery, licensing, platform rules, audience ownership, differentiation and the rights framework around the work.
The risk is not one giant “AI takes music jobs” bucket
The pressure is more likely to vary by use case. Low-cost functional music, stock libraries, background tracks, some commissioning work and highly substitutable catalog uses can face different economics than artist-led releases built around a recognizable person, story, community or performance.
Streaming adds another layer: even if total listening grows, a larger supply of tracks can make attention harder to win. Licensing and commissioning can face price pressure when buyers have cheaper substitutes. At the same time, AI service providers can grow their own revenues while creator remuneration depends on licensing, consent, policy and market structure.
JR takeaway: do not turn an industry forecast into a personal panic number. Map the revenue streams you actually have, then identify which ones are exposed, defensible or expandable.
“Make more music” is not a revenue strategy
Generative tools make output easier. That makes the surrounding creator system more important, not less. Independent creators should build around assets that raw generation alone does not provide:
- A recognizable creative identity: repeated choices, point of view, sound, story and presentation.
- Rights and provenance records: source files, drafts, permissions, platform terms, collaborators and release evidence.
- An owned audience path: a home, email list or direct relationship that is not entirely controlled by one platform.
- Multiple useful revenue paths: releases, licensing, commissions, services, live/community work, direct support, education or other formats that genuinely fit the creator.
- Real measurement: revenue by source, conversion, repeat audience behavior and costs—not vague assumptions based on industry headlines.
Commercial permission and creator income are separate questions
A tool allowing commercial use does not settle copyrightability, third-party clearance, voice or identity rights, distributor acceptance, Content ID eligibility or whether a release will earn meaningful revenue. Keep those issues separate.
If you need the rights side organized before release, use the free AI Music Rights & Ownership Guide 2026.
Do not hide behind “AI artist” or “real musician”
As supply increases, being able to explain what you actually contributed becomes more useful. The rebuilt Musician vs. Music Creator: What the Difference Means in the AI Era separates musician, producer, creator and curator roles without turning them into a status contest.
Industry forecasts do not replace platform-level math
Creators still need to understand the specific systems paying them. For a concrete example, see Spotify Royalties 2026: The 1,000-Stream Rule Explained for Indie Artists, which separates eligibility rules from payout myths and shows what metrics are actually worth tracking.
If this forecast makes you nervous, build a system instead of chasing certainty
No creator can control what the entire AI music market looks like in 2028. You can control whether your work has a clear identity, whether you keep useful evidence, whether you own a direct path to your audience and whether you measure what is actually producing value.
The free Jack Righteous Creator Academy carries that into Stage 3 — Own It and Stage 4 — Build With It: building your home, discovery path, operating system, release rhythm and measurement practice.
Current as of August 19, 2026
This page preserves the original 2028 search intent but replaces the unsupported 23% claim with the sourced CISAC/PMP Strategy 24% forecast, identifies the assumptions behind the figure, removes obsolete promotional links and reframes the article around practical creator exposure, rights, audience ownership and measurement.
Continue the wider investigation
Technology is also about control, resources and human consequences.
Continue through Tech Culture & Power for connected reporting on infrastructure, ownership and public impact.
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